A Sienna College poll has just been released and it has a Republican in the lead for taking over Democrat Gillibrand’s upstate congressional seat.

James Tedisco is leading by 12 points (with a margin of error of 3.7) over Scott Murphy.

According to our handy-dandy wikipedia search, the seat is generally held by Democrats. Only having three Republicans representing the area since 1937.

Here is one of the latest polls from CBS News.  

December 4-8, 2008

Amidst an economy that nine in ten call bad, Americans’ worries over their finances are forcing cutbacks in holiday spending: 54% plan to spend less money on gifts this season – the highest number since CBS News began asking the question in 1987.  Only 4% will spend more money compared to the last few years – a historic low.

HOLIDAY SPENDING NOW VS. THE LAST FEW YEARS
                                                           Now  12/2006 12/2001 11/1991 12/1987
Will spend more                                  4%          12%            9%       12%         17%
Will spend less                                    54            37             25          46            32
About the same                                   41            50             65          40           49

Those earning less will be spending less. And eight in 10 of those who are not meeting their bills and obligations plan to spend less.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans say they will spend under $500, or nothing at all, on holiday gifts this year. One-third will spend over $500, including only 11% who will spend over $1000.

HOW MUCH DO YOU EXPECT TO SPEND ON HOLIDAY GIFTS?
Nothing     5%
Less than $100   11
$100-$250    22
$250-$500    26
$500-$750    14
$750-$1000     9
Over $1000    11

Financial concerns have also prompted some to change their holiday travel plans – more than one in five say they have changed plans due to budgetary reasons.

CHANGE TRAVEL PLANS DUE TO FINANCIAL CONCERNS
Yes  22%
No  72

————————————————————-
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,390 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone December 4-8, 2008.  Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones.  The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points.  The error for subgroups is higher.

q54 Compared to the last few years, will you spend more money on gifts this holiday season, less money, or about the same amount?

   ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **   Dec06a
                                       %                      %
More                               4                    12
Less                                54                   37
Same                              41                   50
DK/NA                             1                     1

q55 This year, how much do you expect to spend on holiday gifts — will you spend less than $100, $100 to $250, between $250 and  $500,  $500 to $750, $750 to $1000, more than $1000, or do you not expect to spend any money on holiday gifts this year?

Less than $100                  11      
$100 - $250                     22     
$250-$500                       26     
$500-$750                       14     
$750-$1000                        9     
Over $1000                      11     
Will spend nothing                    5      
Don’t know/No answer              2      

q56 Have you changed your travel plans this holiday season because of concerns about your family’s finances?

Yes, changed                                        22     
No, no change                                      72     
Never had plans/don’t travel (vol.)    6      
DK/NA                                                    0      
Total Respondents: 1390

CBS News has released the poll results on whether the Big Three should get bailout money from Congress or not.

Today, Congress sent a $15 billion proposal to the White House.

Here is the poll from CBS News and the results.

 HELPING THE BIG THREE U.S. AUTO MAKERS
December 4-7, 2008

Americans are split over government providing financial assistance to U.S. auto makers, but strongly insist on government oversight of the companies’ management - whom most blame for the companies’ problems – as a condition of any aid.

Yet Americans do agree on the big three’s importance: most (55%) foresee a major impact on the economy if any of them go under.

The nation divides over the general idea of helping the big three if that would prevent them from going into bankruptcy.

   GOVERNMENT HELP TO BIG THREE CAR MAKERS?
    Approve          45%
    Disapprove  44

Americans would put conditions on any assistance, and even those who support assistance want strict conditions on it. Most believe that if taxpayers do help the auto makers, the government should have a say in how the companies are managed – and should require them to make more alternative-fuel cars.

  IN EXCHANGE FOR ASSISTANCE, SHOULD THE GOVERNMENT…
                                                                                    Yes  No
Have a say in auto makers’ management?            69%  28

Require more alternative- fuel cars                       66%  29

Views that the government should have a say are shared both by those who approve of financial help, and those who oppose it.

Americans blame the car makers’ management for the companies’ problems – much more so than the prevailing economic conditions.

    U.S. AUTO MAKERS’ CURRENT PROBLEMS MAINLY CAUSED BY…
Management decisions                                     56%
Conditions beyond companies’ control           28
 
Despite divided views on assistance, 55% of Americans believe letting the big three go out of business would be a major hit to the U.S. economy.
 

   IF AUTO MAKERS WENT OUT OF BUSINESS, IMPACT ON U.S. ECONOMY WOULD BE…
   Major                                  55%
   Minor                                  35
   Not much/no impact          8

The big three’s current problems could have a negative impact on their sales.

By a three to one margin, Americans say the auto makers’ troubles would make them less likely to buy a car from the companies, not more likely, if it played into their buying decision.

WOULD AUTO MAKERS’ PROBLEMS AFFECT YOUR DECISION TO BUY THEIR CARS?
   More likely to buy from them        11%
   Less likely to buy from them          31  
   Make no difference                           55

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,098 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone December 4-7, 2008.  Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones.  The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points.  The error for subgroups is higher.
 
CBS NEWS POLL
Helping the Big Three Automakers
December 4-7, 2008

q40 Do you approve or disapprove of the federal government providing money to the big three U.S. auto makers if it would help prevent them from going out of business or declaring bankruptcy?

   ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
                                       *** Party ID ***   
                                                Total    Rep    Dem     Ind   
                                                     %       %      %       %    
Approve                                    45      35     56      38
Disapprove                               44      57     33      49
Depends (Vol.)                           6       5      6       7
Don’t know/No answer            5       3      5       6

q41 If the government does provide money to the big three auto makers, should the government get a say in how these companies are managed, or should the government not be involved in the companies’ management decisions?

Should get a say                   69      63     72      69
Not be involved                    28      34     26      26
Don’t know/No answer        3       3      2       5

q42 If the government does provide money to the big three auto makers, should it require these auto makers to build more cars that use alternative fuels or should the government not be involved in deciding what kinds of cars these companies make?

Require new types of cars         66        51    75      66
Not be involved                          29        44    22      28
Don’t know/No answer              5            5     3       6

q43 If one or more of the big three auto makers were to go out of business, how much of an impact do you think that would have on the nation’s economy?  Do you think it would have a major impact, a minor impact, not much impact, or no impact at all?

Major impact                   55   46    62      53
Minor impact                  35   41    29      37
Not much impact             6    8     5       7
No impact                          2    2     2       1
Don’t know/No answer   2    3     2       2

q44 If you were in the market to buy a new car right now, would the economic problems of General Motors, Ford, or Chrysler affect whether or not you buy a car from them? 
IF YES, ASK:  Would you be more likely or less likely to buy a car from them?

Yes, more likely                            11    9    12      12
Yes, less likely                              31   20    38      31
No, no difference                          55   68    47      55
Don’t know/No answer                3    3     3       2
q45 Are the problems facing the big three auto companies mostly the result of the companies’ management strategies and decisions, or are they mostly the result of economic conditions outside the companies’ control?

** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
                                       *** Party ID ***   
                                                 Total    Rep    Dem     Ind   
                                                        %       %      %       %
Management decisions               56   61    48      62
Outside companies’ control       28   22    36      22
Both/Neither (Vol.)                    11   13     9      11
DK/NA                                          5    4     7       5
     UNWEIGHTED  WEIGHTED
Total Respondents   1098

Total Republicans             289   259
Total Democrats               445   465
Total Independents          364   373 

The latest CBS/New York Times poll is just now out and in time for tomorrow’s debate. Thought I’d pull out a couple of the questions for you guys.

CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT (Among likely voters)
                                  Now    10/6    10/1    9/25/08 
Obama-Biden           53%   48%     50%      48%  
McCain-Palin            39      45        41          43  
Undecided                  6         5          6            6

COMPARED TO PAST CAMPAIGNS, THIS YEAR HAS BEEN (Among registered voters)
                                 Now      10/2004
More positive           15%       13%
More negative          30          41
About the same       53           44
 

Read more of the poll HERE.

The LA Times/Bloomberg poll came out earlier today and show Senator Obama widening his lead, they say in part to the economy.

FOX/Rasmussen released their poll results recently for the always exciting state of Florida and shows a slight lead for Senator Obama.

Did you watch last night? I did.

When it was all over, I wasn’t sure who came out better. Both dodged and weaved, both landed some punches, both acted badly at times.

I was surprised when Senator Obama made reference to the ‘Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran’ song. And I thought Senator McCain made some chuckles in awkward places.

I’ve been scouring the web to find out what politicos and pundits think of last night’s debate, and here’s what I found.

From Politico: In the end, McCain sounded most often like a trumpet, Obama more like a violin.

From National Review: But Obama’s problem wasn’t just saying “John is right” too many times.

From The Fix: As several observers pointed out to The Fix, McCain rarely if ever glanced in Obama’s direction during the entirety of the 90 minute plus debate. Obama, on the other hand, sought to have more of a discussion with McCain, Lehrer and the crowd in attendance at the University of Mississippi.

From CBS News:  Thirty-nine percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-four percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-seven percent saw it as a draw.

Alrighty, I know you all have been waiting patiently for the poll round-up and I can’t hold back any longer… there are some interesting ones.

Today a new CBS/ NYTimes poll came out “The Econonic Crisis Worsens”

PROVIDING MONEY TO WALL STREET TO HELP WITH CRISIS
           Total  Reps   Dems   Inds
Approve     42%    43%    41%   42%
Disapprove  46     45     48    45
WHICH ISSUE IS MOST IMPORTANT IN VOTE FOR PRESIDENT?
(Among registered voters)
                                        Now      9/12-16    8/2008
The economy and jobs                     52%        48%      40%
Terrorism and national security          11         14        9
Gas prices and energy                    10         10        15
Health care                               9         10        9
The war in Iraq                           9          8       15
Illegal immigration                       3          3        6

Senator Obama leads in that poll by five points.

**This poll was conducted among a random sample of 936 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone September 21-24, 2008. **

The Detroit Free Press just released the numbers from their first poll since the primaries and it shows Senator Obama with a significant seven-point lead over Senator McCain.

As usual let’s head over to Real Clear Politics for an average of national polls taken around the country.  The average show Obama with a lead of 3.2 points.

I think these graphs are pretty interesting, hope you enjoy it!

The weekly CBS/New York Times poll came out yesterday and here’s just an overview of the results:

VOTE FOR PRESIDENT - Among registered voters (Polling Data: Sept 12-16)
Post-Rep          Post-Dem     Pre-
Convention     Convention  Conventions
Now                  9/8/08             9/1/08          8/20/08
Obama             48%                  44%                    48%               45%
McCain             43                     46                        40                  42

Undecided          7                       9                           9                  10

*Read the full poll here*

Here’s another question that seems to grasp the current economic situation:

WHICH ISSUE IS MOST IMPORTANT IN VOTING FOR PRESIDENT? (registered voters)
Now                   8/2008
The economy and jobs                          48%                      40%
Terrorism and national security          14                           9
Gas prices and energy                           10                           15
Health care                                              10                            9
The war in Iraq                                        8                            15

*Read the full poll here*

Newsweek’s latest poll from Sept. 12 has both candidates tied. *Read the full poll here*

And,  George Washington University’s ‘Battleground Poll’ is the only one that has McCain in the lead. *Read that poll here*

It’s always interesting to read the questions, see how they’re phrased and try to figure out why polls come up with different results. Remember to check the dates of when the poll was taken…

While the two campaigns battle it out, I thought it might be interesting to look at which states are the ‘battleground states’ and what puts them into that category.

According to CBS News, here are the toss-up states:

Colorado
Florida
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin

In total, these states account for 177 electoral votes.

Each day I’ll be reaching out to political writers and thinkers in the respective states to figure out what the hot topics are and what puts their state in the ‘battleground’ category.

If you’re familiar with any of these states, feel free to give me some insight!

Btw, it would be TOO easy if there was only one map that laid out the ‘battlegound states’. I did some digging around and came up with a couple more:

CNN: Toss up electoral votes - 106

RealClearPolitics: Toss up electoral votes - 147

 New York Times: Toss up electoral votes - 66

A few major polls have been released yesterday and today, and all of them are looking at McCain in the lead.

The CBS News-New York Times poll interviewed the same people both before and after the conventions for some of these answers. Here are a few of the poll questions and answers:

BEFORE AND AFTER BOTH CONVENTIONS: VOTE FOR PRESIDENT
               NOW   8/20/08 (Before Conventions)
McCain        46%   42% 
Obama  44   45
Undecided  9   10
IS YOUR MIND MADE UP?
                        Obama voters           McCain voters
                       Now 8/20  Now  8/20
Yes   79% 74%  82%  72%
No, too soon         21 25  18  28

ABC News/ Washington Post Poll came out today and shows McCain is up two points. They have focused some of their poll on how specifically white women are more inclined to vote.

The only national poll that has McCain tied with Obama is the CNN poll.

If you check out the RealClearPolitics Blog, they’ve got a great mashup of all the polls and the averages of all of them put together. (Which, by the way, shows McCain in the lead by 2.9 points)

Polls. They’re everywhere and every respectable news organization seems to have ‘the one’.

Today, there’s chatting about Senator Obama’s seeming inability to crack the 50 percent threshold in any of the polls.  I think it’s safe to gather that because we’re not asking about Senator McCain’s poll status that even with all the buzz surrounding Obama and his massive events, maybe he’s not getting to the heart of what voters need to gain their confidence as the next leader of the free world.

MORE: Blogging the Conventions

WCBS Anchor Steve Scott spoke with David Paul Kuhn of Politico.com about this very subject. 

“He clearly has hit a ceiling, the question is… polls are not predictive so we’ll see what happens in the months ahead,” Kuhn continues, “he never endured or sustained a long bounce after assuming the Democratic nomination.”

A couple of interesting polls came out this week so I thought we’d take a look at them…

Today, Gallup Poll came out with their daily tracking on the latest preferences of registered voters for the two candidates.

Obama leads McCain, 46 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of +/- two percentage points.

I think it’s also important to note that the results were from 2,691 registered voters from data collected August 3-5.

The AP/Ipsos poll came out Tuesday, August 5th with these results:

Obama leads McCain, 47 percent to 41 percent witha  margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

For this poll, data was collected from 833 registered voters between July 31 - August 4.

So what is the point of all these polls? I think it’s important to keep them in perspective. They are a snapshot of time. To really understand what these polls mean we’d have to go back to before the time of the polling… so last weekend, and see what was happening then to see how the voters were thinking. Was there a lot of energy talk or was this the weekend when candidates focused on the war…

A great example of this time-lapse was back in January when Senator Clinton won the New Hampshire primary when all the polls had Obama in the lead. What happened? Why were they so wrong? Well, they weren’t wrong, they had taken a snapshot of voters a few days BEFORE Clinton’s tearful appearance at a Portsmouth, N.H. coffee shop.

The tears may have been what tipped N.H. in Clinton’s favor.

By the way, keep on the look out later tonight for the latest CBS/ NY Times poll. I told you all respectable organizations have one!